Thursday, October 28, 2010

Bank admits to errors in its forecasting

The deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, has admitted that the recession "highlighted shortcomings" in the Bank's economic forecasting models.
He said that even had the Bank considered the possibility that the economy could shrink by more than 6 per cent, as actually happened, the Bank would have put the chances as being "virtually negligible".

"One would need to be endowed with perfect foresight to have been able to predict how the financial crisis would unfold, spilling over from one institution to another, and from one market to another," he added. "Who knows what would have happened if, for instance, Lehman Brothers had successfully found a buyer that weekend in September 2008?"

Is he saying that nobody can see into the future?
These will be the top dogs in regulatory circles, they have all the power, the knowledge and the data yet they can’t be held accountable for their failure to forecast problems.

Yet, the regulators pillory small IFAs for not being able to forecast changes which took place after they gave advice in good faith under what was known as a “reasonably held opinion” many years ago.

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